If you’ve ever wondered why we look towards a celebrity groundhog every year for our weather, thanks the Germans and our own love of slightly strange stories. The whole groundhog predicting the weather idea came with the Pennsylvania Dutch (Germans, not actually Dutch). Back in their own country, they would look for the hedgehog or badger to come out of hibernation to signal spring. This got tied into their Christian holiday Candlemas. Several hundred years ago, the priests would distribute candles to last the winter. At the midway point, people really had to start hoping for a sign of an early spring. Their large rodents just so happened to be the perfect fit. When they came over to the US, they brought their tradition with them, substituting the hedgehog for the more populous groundhog.

In 1887, Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania held their first groundhog day. The event made the local newspaper and over the years embellished their story a little. A groundhog usually lives for about six to seven years, their groundhog, though, drinks a magical elixir every summer, adding seven years to his life. Word spread and soon it was being celebrated in other cities. The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club declared their groundhog, named Punxsutawney Phil, was the only true weather predicting groundhog, solidifying his place on top. Other cities over the US have their own official weather predicting groundhog or similar, including Birmingham Bill to Staten Island Chuck, Buckeye Chuck from Ohio, French Creek from West Virginia, and the Cajun Groundhog from Louisiana, and Texas, who lacking groundhogs, makes do with an armadillo. It should be noted that us Americans aren’t alone is our weather-predicating rodents, for our neighbor the north, Canada, has Shubenacadie Sam.

Punxsutawney Phil doesn’t have the best track record. According to the National Climatic Data Center, Phil is only right 39% of the time. He has seen his shadow 97 times, missed it 15 times, with 9 years unaccounted for. According to tradition, if Phil sees his shadow, he becomes frightened and goes back into hibernation, foreshadowing another six weeks of winter. If he doesn’t see his shadow, Phil comes out of his burrow, predicting an early spring. Officially, winter really does have six and a half weeks left from February 2^nd. February 2^nd is the astronomical middle of winter, between the solstice and the equinox.

This year, Phil has called for an early spring. The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club held a three day celebration for Phil before he gave his official prediction. After Phil appeared from his temporary home, with his wife “Phyllis” and daughter “Phelicia”, spoke to the Club President in Groundhogese, a language only understood by Phil and the Inner Circle of the Club, and the President announced Phil’s official prediction. Keeping with the times, Phil also texted his prediction.

Whether Phil’s prediction for an early spring is, by chance, right is still up in the air. We got six more weeks to tell.